Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, has challenged African Development Bank (AfDB) President Akinwunmi Adesina’s assertion that Nigeria’s current state is worse than at independence in 1960. Onanuga, in a Sunday Facebook post, disputed Adesina’s GDP per capita figures, presenting alternative data.
Onanuga countered Adesina’s claim of a $1,847 per capita GDP in 1960 versus $824 today. He stated, “According to available data, our country’s GDP was $4.2 billion in 1960, and per capita income for a population of 44.9 million was $93—ninety-three dollars, not even one hundred.” He further detailed Nigeria’s GDP growth, highlighting its significant increase from $12.55 billion in 1970 to $164 billion in 1981, emphasizing that per capita GDP didn’t surpass $880 until 1980.
Adesina, at the 20th anniversary of Chapel Hill Denham, reportedly attributed Nigeria’s economic underperformance to over-reliance on oil, underinvestment, structural weaknesses, and policy failures. He urged, “Underdevelopment should not be accepted as our destiny. We must break free from this pattern.” Bloomberg’s reporting added that Nigeria lost its position as Africa’s largest economy to Egypt in 2023 due to currency devaluation impacting nominal GDP. The IMF projects Nigeria’s nominal GDP to reach $188.3 billion this year, placing it fourth in Africa behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria. Adesina advocated for prioritizing infrastructure, technology, and innovation, envisioning Nigeria as Africa’s industrial leader, outlining five crucial factors: accelerated industrialization, reliable electricity, competitive agriculture, innovation-driven growth, and advanced infrastructure development.
Onanuga argued that GDP per capita alone fails to capture the improvements in quality of life. He stated, “GDP per capita is silent on whether Nigerians in 2025 enjoy better access to healthcare, education, and transportation, such as rail and air transport, than in 1960.” He continued, “This premise alone suggests why Dr. Adesina should not have arrived at his conclusion. Compared with 1960, Nigeria today has more primary, secondary, and tertiary schools. We have more road networks and more medical facilities, private and public. We have phenomenal access to telephones.”
Onanuga acknowledged that the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) GDP figures might not fully reflect the economy without incorporating the informal sector. He concluded, “No objective observer can claim that Nigeria has not made progress since 1960. Today, as we await the NBS’s recalibration of our GDP, we can comfortably say without contradiction that it is at least 50 times, if not 100 times, more than it was at Independence.” Nigeria is currently updating its GDP data to reflect the digital economy, e-commerce, mining, creative industries, and the blue economy, sectors previously underrepresented or omitted in the 2014 rebasing.
